(And in the UK, SEN too)
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'The greatest existential threat to the United Kingdom; since the Second World War'.
Well, maybe, but certainly a most important factor in many aspects of people's lives in the UK, in the EU and perhaps in other places too:
This applies to CE too. How precisely this will be is too early to say. Most apparently at the moment (D+1 of the official notice to leave) Brexit could affect the following.
- Conductors from EU countries planning to live and work in the UK. Those hoping to live and work in the UK will be subject to discussions expected in the early stages of the negotiation. If they come from EU countries they will no longer be joining the queue for UK and EU citizens at Arrivals. If it is like previously then their potential employers may have to make a special case to employ them. If expecting to be self-employed then they might have to make their own individual special cases. And then there may be the possible question around their qualifications that will also need sorting out individual – all time, effort and uncertainty for everyone involved.
- Conductors from EU countries already living and working in the UK. So far the signs look good that they and their families will be granted permanent stay.
- Conductors from the UK wishing to live and work in the EU and conductors from the UK already living and working in the EU. Whatever is decided upon will doubtless have to be reciprocal to points 1 and 2 above. The numbers involved will certainly be much smaller but the implications for individuals involved an no less.
- Those in the UK and the EU, either planning to employ or already employing conductors from the other side of the new frontier. They will presumably have to take points 1-4 above into their consideration too and act accordingly.
- Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland . These have been rendered largely TERRÆ NON-CONDUCTIVÆ (CE-free zones) on the world conductive map. Who knows, what happens over the next coupe of years just might stimulate new initiatives in a future world that will be rather different from our own...
- 'European' developments. The has a been a long-standing minority lobby to create a 'European' entity, both institutional and conceptual – and to draw people in the UK into this (with greater attention this to that granted to developments in the rest of the EU). Whatever happens now, as far as the UK's relationship with CE the EU is concerned, in two years this will be something that is happening not just overseas but in a foreign country. As a minor corollary, that could be the end of British participation in EU-funded discussion groups.
- Elsewhere. Whatever happens now as a result of Brexit between the UK and its big new neighbour the EU – and what may happens within the EU too – will certainly impact in presently unforeseeable ways in countries in the rest of the world. This likelihood should be particularly obvious to those who like to think holistically. Correspondingly, this will apply too in the little world of Conductive Education. Again, the conductor jobs market comes most obviously to mind, with particular knock-on effects on the jobs market in German- and English-speaking countries. How and how else one shall have to wait, even to speculate...
Speculation is all that one has to go on at the moment, for any of this. Speculation is the best that may be possible to be done in prudent consideration of risk factors, personal or institutional, though as the two years of negotiation proceed then some at least of the details will likely sharpen.
That is speculation too!
SEN ('Special Educational Needs')
To put it politely SEN has not been going well. Nor has education as a whole in the United Kingdom (in some pares more so that in others).. Over the next two years 'SEN' would ideally benefit from serious Parliamentary scrutiny. In the meantime and by default, however, it will remain largely in the hands of the functionaries and the pressure groups who have been a major cause of present problems in the first place. Anyone who has seriously hoped for major Parliamentary time to start cleansing this Augean stable should ask which will have the greatest priority for official time, SEN or Brexit.
The Great Appeal Bill is coming. No contest:
(Conductive Education is well off the national radar in the UK and so very unlikely to feature explicitly in national consideration of SEN).
Who knows, about any of this?
Me, you, Theresa May? None of us.
104 weeks are a very long time in politics. One thing alone is certain: in two years' time nothing will be as anyone foresees it today.
Die Welt this morning confidently predicts the long-term outcome as 'somewhere between Apocalypse and Wonderland'. You can't say fairer than that.